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The economy – and the tech industry – is still on track for a recovery in the second half of this year, and while the holiday season will not fully recover in 2009, it will be less dismal than 2008, according to analysts from the Consumer Electronics Association.

The recession could end in the late July, early August timeframe, Shawn Dubravac, an economist and director of research at CEA, said at a conference hosted by the association.

Consumers have cut out excess spending, but the good news is that analysts are seeing the same trends during this recession as they saw during previous recessions, Dubravac said. In those cases, consumer spending usually bottomed out before the economy did, so that this point, it can only get better from here.

Dubravac and his colleague Steve Koenig, director of industry analysis for CEA, have been speaking with tech executives who are part of CEA’s advisory panel. On average, “optimists are leading the pack,” Koenig said.

Panel members predicted a 0.5 percent growth for 2009, but a 2.9 percent growth in 2010, Koenig said. “That’s slightly above the current estimate for GDP, so tech will outpace GDP.”

Back in January, the industry was extremely pessimistic, but that has picked up in recent months, Dubravac said. “That’s a good sign before the holidays.”

Holiday 2009 will be “low by historical standards, but better than 2008,” he said.

What will be driving the growth?

Get the rest of this story on pcmag.com.


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